Delivered by Tom Alweendo, Former Minister of Mines and Energy, Namibia

International University of Management — Public Lecture Series

1. Introduction

Pro-Vice Chancellor Makanyeza, members of the academic community, students, fellow citizens.

I am deeply honored to be with you today to reflect on an issue that touches every one of us. The issue I would like to address is how a small, developing nation like Namibia, can survive and succeed amid the turbulence of today’s global geopolitical landscape.

Let me begin by stating something that I believe is simple, yet profound – and this is that we are not living on an island. We are now living in a world where local is global
and distance is an illusion. Namibia may be geographically distant from the epicenters of some of the global conflicts. However, in this age of instant communication, tightly linked markets, and transnational challenges, we are not immune.

For example, the war in Ukraine affects our food prices. A trade dispute between the United States and China shifts investment flows across the globe. Rising global
interest rates constrain our external borrowing capacity. Climate disasters in one part of the world send ripple effects across the insurance markets, food supply chains, and donor priorities. So, we may be small, but we are not invisible. We may be distant, but we are not disconnected.

It is therefore necessary that we understand these challenges. More importantly, we must begin to sketch a practical path forward for our country. A path not based on fear or idealism, but one rooted in clarity, resolve, and unity. Even from afar, the storm touches us. Let us therefore be ready to sail and not sink.

2. Understanding the Global Context

It is not an understatement that we are living through a historic turning point. The post-Cold War consensus that was built around globalization, liberal democracy, and
multilateralism, is under serious strain. We are therefore living at a geopolitical crossroad, where yesterday’s certainties are today’s chaos. I can think of four major
trends that define this new era:

i. We Now Live In A Fractured Global Order
There was a time when international cooperation was a given – today it is no longer the case. We are now witnessing global institutions that are weakened. Permanent members of the UN Security Council, for example, are openly in conflict. For countries like Namibia, this means fewer predictable rules and more power politics.

ii. We Are Witnessing Economic Nationalism and Strategic Rivalries
From chip wars to see who will dominate the AI space; rare earths to economic sanctions. Economic tools are now being used as geopolitical weapons. If Namibia is
not vigilant, we may find our own strategic resources caught in the crossfire of great power rivalry.

iii. Technological Fragmentation Is Increasing
The internet is no longer as we knew it – it is becoming more and more fragmented. Think of the competing standards that are emerging in AI, 5G, and digital finance. If we do not prepare well, we risk being locked into systems that may not serve our longterm interests.

iv. We Are Witnessing Recurring Climate and Demographic Pressures
As the global South continues to grow in population, and as climate stress accelerates globally, we will see increasing pressure on food systems, water, and migration. Namibia is part of this dynamic. We will either prepare now, or face compounding crises later. The world has changed, and we cannot afford to only react, but to start to respond with eyes wide open and feet firmly planted.

3. The Structural Vulnerabilities of a Small State

To understand how Namibia can position itself strategically in a rapidly changing world, we must first acknowledge the structural vulnerabilities that confront small states like ours. These vulnerabilities do not stem from a lack of aspiration or potential, but from the limitations inherent in size, economic structure, and international influence.

First, Namibia faces the challenge of economic concentration, which leaves our national income and employment prospects heavily dependent on a narrow set of sectors and export products. Our economy relies significantly on the extraction and export of primary commodities, such as diamonds, and uranium.

While these sectors generate substantial revenue, they are also highly susceptible to global price volatility and external demand shocks. A sudden dip in commodity prices or a slowdown in a major trading partner’s economy, be it China, the European Union, or South Africa, can ripple through our economy, affecting government revenue, employment, and the cost of living. Furthermore, this concentration limits our ability to build a resilient middle class, which is critical for longterm economic stability.

Second, we grapple with limited bargaining power in international affairs. Namibia is a respected member of the international community, and we have long demonstrated diplomatic competence. Yet, in many multilateral forums and trade negotiations, small states like ours often find ourselves on the receiving end of decisions made by larger powers. When global financial institutions impose reforms, or when global trade rules shift to favor developed economies, our influence is marginal. We are frequently forced to adapt to frameworks in which we had little say. This asymmetry in global governance structures leaves Namibia with fewer tools to defend its interests when global dynamics shift.

A third and critical vulnerability lies in our dependence on external finance. Much of Namibia’s development is supported by foreign direct investment, concessional
finance, and donor aid. While these sources of funding have been essential in expanding infrastructure, healthcare, and education, they also come with constraints. Interest rate hikes in the United States or Europe raise the cost of borrowing for countries like ours. Shifts in donor priorities, whether toward conflict zones or global health emergencies, can leave us with funding gaps. Foreign direct investment, though vital, is often concentrated in extractive industries, and may not always contribute to local value chains or skills transfer.

These vulnerabilities are compounded by our small domestic market, which limits economies of scale for local businesses and reduces internal buffers against external shocks. Our population is relatively sparse, and much of our territory is arid and difficult to cultivate. This limits both agricultural productivity and domestic demand. As a result,
Namibia is more exposed to import inflation, food insecurity, and supply chain disruptions than larger, more diversified economies.

Yet, it is important to emphasize that vulnerability is not destiny. Structural constraints can be mitigated or even transformed through foresight, innovation, and deliberate policy choices. The key lies not in lamenting our small size, but in leveraging our strategic advantages to forge a more sustainable development path. Some of those advantages are our geopolitical stability, mineral wealth, natural beauty, and a constitutionally grounded democracy.

History offers ample proof that small states are not condemned to perpetual fragility. Countries like Singapore, Costa Rica, and Mauritius have overcome limitations of geography and size by investing in human capital, institutional excellence, and regional integration. Namibia can, and must do the same. But it will require hard choices, coherent leadership, and, most of all, a shared national commitment to move beyond short-term fixes and toward long-term structural transformation. We may be
small, but let us also remember that we are not entirely powerless.

4. Strategic Imperatives for Namibia — Building Sovereignty Through Strategy

For a small state in a volatile global system, strategy is not a luxury; it is an existential necessity. We cannot afford to drift on the tides of geopolitics. We must row with
deliberation, with vision and coordination. We must respond to the vulnerabilities of small-state geopolitics not with fear, but with thoughtful, determined action. Strategic survival means doing what we can, and doing so consistently, deliberately, and courageously. This is especially so in the areas we can control. Here are five key imperatives that I believe we must pursue.

i. Root Foreign Policy in Principle and Pragmatism
Namibia must continue to uphold its non-aligned and principled foreign policy posture. We should not align ourselves based on geopolitical pressure but on national interest and shared values. This may require us to expand our diplomatic relationships beyond traditional partners. For instance, Namibia should deepen ties with countries like Indonesia, Chile, and Vietnam. These are some of the nations that, like us, are resource-rich, climate-vulnerable, and globally engaged.

We can also take leadership in specific global discussions where we have earned credibility. Namibia’s record in wildlife conservation, for example, gives us standing to lead on global biodiversity frameworks. Our upcoming green hydrogen developments give us authority to shape discussions on clean energy transitions in the Global South.

At the multilateral level, we must become more assertive in alliances like the African Union and SADC. We should actively propose resolutions, host summits on climate and trade, and push for African-led reforms of global financial systems, especially the IMF and World Bank.

ii. Build a More Inclusive and Diversified Economy
Economic resilience requires breaking our dependence on a few export commodities. We must therefore create a more dynamic economy, one that adds value at home,
supports broad-based employment, and opens new global markets.

We should incentivize local value addition through tax incentives and industrial zones. For example, rather than simply exporting lithium and rare earths, Namibia should build or co-invest in battery component plants. Government can offer reduced tax rates or subsidized land leases for such investments, conditional on skills training and technology transfer.

We must also reduce bureaucratic red tape that chokes SMEs. A one-stop digital portal for business registration, tax filing, and licensing would save entrepreneurs time and money. Targeted microfinance programs for women- and youth-led businesses must be scaled, with business mentorship as a condition for access. At the same time, the Government must provide clear, transparent rules that attract investment while protecting national interests. Overregulation discourages innovation, just as underregulation invites exploitation.